FacebookTwitter

HAI

Unless otherwise indicated, the material below has not been prepared by Van Eck Associates Corporation or HardAssetsInvestor.com.
Neither assumes any liability for any content on a third party website or material prepared by a third party.

Brad's Desktop

   |
Poor Nothing special Worth watching Pretty cool Awesome! 13 Ratings
Rate this article
Oil Price Surge: Will It Help?
Written by Brad Zigler   
March 26, 2008 2:59 pm EDT


May crude opened the NYMEX floor session a dollar higher than yesterday's $101.22 settlement, then shot up to the $105 level. Heating oil and gasoline futures, too, opened strong after being lifted in the overnight markets.

The government reported gasoline and heating oil stockpiles fell last week while crude oil inventories remained unchanged. This came as quite a surprise to analysts who'd jawboned a 1.5 million increase in crude supplies. Oil stocks now stand at 311.8 million barrels, about average for this time of year, according to the Energy Department.

More telling, perhaps, is the tale told by refining products. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels last week, well below the 1 million barrel drawdown expected by oil insiders. Still, gasoline stocks are above the upper limit of the commodity's average seasonal range. Hold that thought for a moment or two.

Another surprise came from the distillate fuel category. Inventories had been expected to decrease by 1.5 million barrels, but instead worked 2.2 million barrels lower. Stocks are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year. Another thought to hold.

As we've looked at refining margins over the past few weeks, readers have wondered what's been behind the declining profitability in the crack spread. "Cracking" is industry jargon for distilling. A refiner "cracks" crude oil into various products ranging from highly refined gasoline to thick residual fuel oil. The most marketable products are gasoline and heating oil.

Last week, we reported the fifth-consecutive weekly decline in the crack spread profits (see "Processing Profits Plunging").

Here's where you get to unload your thoughts.

Despite higher at-pump prices, gasoline inventories have been rising. Wholesale prices, as a consequence, have been falling. Year-to-date, May reformulated blendstock has slipped 5.5%. Meanwhile, stocks of heating oil (a denizen of the "distillate fuel" category) are now lower than average. Not surprisingly, the price of heating oil has risen 11.5%.

Keep in mind that a moderately efficient refiner can draw two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of heating oil out of a three-barrel lot of crude. The rising cost of crude oil inputs, coupled with the lower returns on the sale of gasoline swamps the gains earned from marketing heating oil.

This table spells out the margin erosion week-by-week:

April/May Crack Spread

 

CrackSpread

We'll roll to the May/June crack spread in tomorrow's report to see if today's price action has had a salutary effect.

 



 

 
Subscribe to Our Weekly Newsletter 
First Comment

Comments (0)



Post a Comment

Comment
(Limit 2,000
characters) 
*
Name: *
E-mail: *
Home page:

(optional)

Type in the displayed characters
Email follow-up comments to my e-mail address
 


Terms of Use
The HardAssetsInvestor.com message board and comment features are designed to facilitate thoughtful discussion of the biggest issues impacting commodity investors. All comments should be respectful. Insults and profanity are not permitted. The editor reserves the right to remove comments at his/her discretion.

 

Related Articles »

Did you like this article? Then you may be interested in:

  • Another Surprising Day In The Oil Ring
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -1.4% If you watched the overnight price trend in U.S.
    July 21, 2010
  • Lead-Footed Refiners Create Product Glut
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -1.8% Tomorrow, the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S.
    July 13, 2010
  • The Second Quarter’s Best And Worst Commodities
    Which commodity (and its associated ETP) performed the best? (Hint: It wasn't gold.) Which performed the worst? We run the numbers to find out.
    July 01, 2010
  • Surprise! Big Drawdowns In Crude, Gasoline Stocks
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -4.2% Oil gained modest ground in the overnight market in anticipation of this morning's holiday-delayed inventory report from the U.S.
    June 03, 2010
  • A Short Crack Season?
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -3.4% Amid all the hoopla and volatility of the past few days, you might not have noticed the compression in refining margins.
    May 27, 2010
 

Commodities Data

July 30, 2010 10:37 AM EST

  Loading data ...
 

Weekly Commodities Poll

Is now a good time to buy gold?

 

Related Articles »

Did you like this article? Then you may be interested in:

  • Another Surprising Day In The Oil Ring
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -1.4% If you watched the overnight price trend in U.S.
    July 21, 2010
  • Lead-Footed Refiners Create Product Glut
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -1.8% Tomorrow, the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S.
    July 13, 2010
  • The Second Quarter’s Best And Worst Commodities
    Which commodity (and its associated ETP) performed the best? (Hint: It wasn't gold.) Which performed the worst? We run the numbers to find out.
    July 01, 2010
  • Surprise! Big Drawdowns In Crude, Gasoline Stocks
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -4.2% Oil gained modest ground in the overnight market in anticipation of this morning's holiday-delayed inventory report from the U.S.
    June 03, 2010
  • A Short Crack Season?
    Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -3.4% Amid all the hoopla and volatility of the past few days, you might not have noticed the compression in refining margins.
    May 27, 2010
 

Seminal Papers »