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Page 1 of 2 This article was originally published at OilPrice.com, which focuses on fossil fuels, alternative energy, metals and geopolitics. To find out more, visit their Web site. The article is republished here with permission and minor edits for length. One bonus of the global recession is that it wiped a lot of incompetent hedge fund managers and energy speculators from the canyons of Wall Street. As the Gordon Gecko sycophants regroup and look for the next Big Thing, the landscape looks very different than it did a year ago. In such a climate, it is uranium, not oil and natural gas, that would seem to have the brightest future given one simple, overriding capitalist principle—supply and demand. Whatever agreements are reached at December's global climate warming summit in Copenhagen, they can only boost uranium's appeal. According to a University of Wisconsin study, nuclear power plants only emit about 17 tons of carbon dioxide per megawatt, a little more than wind and geothermal power. (In contrast, coal has the highest carbon emissions at about, 1,000 tons per megawatt.) Accordingly, expect to see many nuclear power cheerleaders emerge in Copenhagen. A Worldwide Nuclear Expansion Two years ago, London's World Nuclear Association reported that worldwide, 256 reactors were either in the planning stage or under construction, including new stations in Europe, Asia, and the United States. These new reactors would be in addition to the 439 nuclear power reactors worldwide reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency, an increase of 58 percent—and all needing fuel. In particular, Asia's economic powerhouse China is interested in nuclear energy, although it is a relative newcomer to nuclear power generation, deriving only 2.3 percent of its electricity from nuclear power. Of China's 11 current nuclear power plants, the oldest, Qingshan-1, only came online in 1991. China's Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense in its 11th Five-Year Plan for the Nuclear Industry said China will prospect for and develop indigenous uranium deposits in order to expand the nation's ability to produce 40 gigawatts of nuclear power electrical generating capacity by 2020. Further accelerating China's move towards nuclear power, on 26 November, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao announced his country's plan to cut carbon-emissions intensity 40 to 45 percent by 2020 compared with 2005 levels. (Carbon intensity is the emissions produced per unit of economic output, and in order to meet the target.) Since most renewable and alternate non-fossil energy is in the power sector, this would mean a much higher percentage of China's total electricity generation to meet these goals will need to come from non-fossil fuel sources, including renewables and nuclear energy. To be on the safe side, China is also developing a national uranium reserve, to commence in 2010. Despite Beijing's ambitious attempts to expand uranium production in Xinjiang and elsewhere however, local sources will be insufficient to meet domestic needs, despite countrywide prospecting. Analysts predict that within less than a decade, China's planned nuclear power reactors will consume 44 million pounds of uranium annually, as more than 16 provinces, regions and municipalities have announced intentions to build nuclear power plants within the next eight years—a total of 77 planned and proposed new reactors. Kazakhstan: Increasing Production The revival of interest in nuclear power in the wake of record-high oil prices and despite environmentalists' opposition will prove a boon for uranium-producing nations. Current global production of uranium is approximately 40,000 tons annually. The math of the analysts quoted above on China's needs means that without increased production, China alone would consume 55 percent of current world output within a decade. Canada currently leads world production, with 25 percent of the world's output, followed by Australia and Kazakhstan. These three countries currently account for more than half of global uranium production. Other uranium-mining nations include the United States, the Russian Federation, Portugal, Namibia and Niger, but those seeking reliable supplies must needs look to the "Big Three." Kazakhstan contains the world's second-largest uranium reserves and has ambitious plans to massively boost its output of the silvery metal, as evidenced by this year's production. Kazatomprom, the country's national nuclear corporation, said in a press release last month that the country boosted uranium output an eye-watering 61 percent year-on-year in January-September to 9,535 tons, 3 percent above the government's target for the period.
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